Reasons to be confident about healthcare

We are living through one of the most challenging periods the biotech industry has faced since its beginnings the 1970s.  Given the deluge of current events, it can feel challenging to focus on anything other than the headwinds our industry faces. From lopsided incentives that shift investment appeal away from small molecules to decreased NIH funding and changing market dynamics that have led to devaluations across the genomic medicine sector, there is no doubt we face significant hurdles. But as I look at the landscape, even amidst the challenges, I also see reasons to be confident about the trajectory of science and healthcare. 

First, the emergence of the largest drug class in history: GLP-1 receptor agonists. Originally approved for type II diabetes, these drugs are beginning to show remarkable impacts on a much wider range of diseases. Weight loss and obesity management have garnered the most media attention so far, but increasingly there is also evidence of benefits for cardiovascular health, skeletal muscle-related conditions, neurodegenerative diseases, and more. 

As the usefulness of GLP-1s grows, so does their market share. About 1 in 8 U.S. adults have used a GLP-1 agonist, and the global market share for these drugs is expected to reach between $75 billion and $140 billion by 2030. With these kinds of numbers, GLP-1s are poised to become the largest, most impactful drug class ever – eclipsing even statins – and a game-changer for the health of people around the world. 

Second, we are making substantial progress in addressing dementia. An estimated 6.9 million Americans aged 65 and older are living with Alzheimer’s disease today, and this number is only projected to grow – potentially reaching 13.8 million by 2060. The healthcare system currently bears an enormous burden: the total cost per Alzheimer's patient in the United States, including direct medical care and indirect costs such as caregiver time and lost productivity, was estimated to be over $360 billion in 2024. A devastating 70% of that cost is borne by families. 

Fortunately, science is catching up. A greater understanding of the biology underlying the disease has given way to an exciting number of drugs in the pipeline. As of 2024, there were approximately 164 trials assessing 127 drugs, including 32 drugs in phase III and 81 in phase II. With these advances, we are witnessing the first meaningful pipeline of potential therapeutics for these devastating conditions. With the right diagnostic tools, we can hope to get these drugs to people early enough to make a meaningful difference. 

Third, artificial intelligence is transforming our industry's ability to identify new opportunities and bring them to fruition faster than ever. From identifying novel targets to predicting side effects and streamlining the recruitment process for patients in clinical trials, AI is already showing tremendous potential to revolutionize the way every facet of our industry works, dramatically accelerating the identification and dissemination of promising therapeutics. 
We cannot afford to waste these tremendous opportunities. To ensure we embrace their full potential, it’s clear we need to focus on the critical few. 

So what should be on our “short list”? One obvious priority is early detection and getting the right treatments to the right people. Both GLP-1 agonists and new treatments for neurodegenerative disease work most effectively when they’re administered early. This means investment in diagnostic technologies is critical. So is ensuring the way these tests are developed, funded, and reimbursed, so that patients and providers are served in the best possible way.

 
Another key priority is affordable manufacturing.  New and effective treatments mean nothing if we cannot produce and deliver them at scale and at a cost the system can bear. For help, we can turn to collaborations that cut down on inefficiencies, as well as AI, to dramatically streamline processes and lower costs. 

We find ourselves at a pivotal moment in healthcare innovation. While the challenges we face are real and even daunting, we cannot lose sight of the fact that they exist within the context of unprecedented scientific and technological progress. That progress is only possible thanks to the work of our extraordinary people who recognize that while markets may fluctuate, our commitment to building a healthier world never wavers. Together, our response to these challenges will determine not whether, but how the remarkable advances we're witnessing will translate into meaningful improvements for patients and their families.